In the past several days I found myself fielding the same question over and over again: Since the EZ economy appears to be improving, won’t … Read More
- Little change in IMF’s global growth outlook.
- A number of green shoots in the EZ make policymakers generally optimistic.
- Doubting ECB QE only hurts performance.
- Not a lot of optimism on Greece.
- China seen as slowing but not too much.
- Rate hikes by Fed seem likely around September. Read More
The economic situation in Japan has made some progress, but challenges still remain. Inflation, in particular, does not seem to be headed in the desired … Read More
The March FOMC meeting seems to have validated the market impression (which we think is wrong) that Yellen is ideologically dovish. As a result, a … Read More
- Why I think the odds of an accident are increasing.
- What are the possible scenarios?
- What’s the good news if Greece exits?
- What’s the not so good news? Read More
The minutes of the March FOMC meeting released yesterday didn’t elicit much of a market reaction, but nonetheless they contained four points worth keeping in … Read More
The employment report was clearly disappointing, and the bond market is reacting accordingly. However, we shouldn’t get carried away and think the report drastically changes … Read More
We are getting several questions as to what the market is pricing in when it comes to Fed rate hikes. In this note we explain … Read More
We continue to hear concerns that QE in Europe might be ineffective because the ECB can’t buy all it said it would buy. With respect … Read More
List of Frequent Client Questions:
- Is Yellen really data-dependent?
- Why were there big moves in the Fed forecast?
- How confident are you in a rate hike by September?
- What’s the most important thing to watch between now and then?
- Will the market converge to the Fed or vice versa?
- Wouldn’t tightening be a policy mistake given the fragile economy?
- Is the Fed trying to talk down the dollar? Read More