Three Reasons Why Concerns About ECB QE Are Not Warranted

We continue to hear concerns that QE in Europe might be ineffective because the ECB can’t buy all it said it would buy. With respect … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: Q&A On Fed Policy – My Answers To Frequent Client Questions

List of Frequent Client Questions:
- Is Yellen really data-dependent?
- Why were there big moves in the Fed forecast?
- How confident are you in a rate hike by September?
- What’s the most important thing to watch between now and then?
- Will the market converge to the Fed or vice versa?
- Wouldn’t tightening be a policy mistake given the fragile economy?
- Is the Fed trying to talk down the dollar? Read More »


The Market Vs. The Fed: Who Is Going To Be Right?

The market has in mind about the same liftoff time as the Fed is signaling (September), but is pricing in a much shallower and dovish … Read More »


An Update On Greece: Entering A Critical Phase

By all accounts not much progress has been made in the negotiations between Greece and the EU. We discuss at least three reasons why things … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: Fed Policy Outlook – No Change To Big Picture

Main Points:
- Market reaction to FOMC meeting was surprising.
- Fed growth forecast lower because of dollar.
- Fed inflation forecast lower because of dollar and oil.
- Forecasts still support rate hike this year, before Q4.
- Liftoff date may have shifted to September, but pace remains the same. Read More »


The Market Reaction To The FOMC: What’s Justified And What’s Not

The market reacted exuberantly to the FOMC statement and projections yesterday. In today’s note we discuss the market trajectory for the funds rate and its … Read More »


Quick Take: What The FOMC Forecast Implies

Overall the outcome of the FOMC was in line with my expectations going in (see this note), with the exception that the revision to the … Read More »


Dollar Strength: Currency Wars Or Economic Reality?

There is a perception among many investors that dollar strength is in good part the result of the easing put in place by foreign central … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: Thinking About China’s Policy Options

Main Points:
- Four different, conflicting objectives of PBOC.
- Rate cuts don’t propagate well to market rates.
- Liquidity injections likely to continue to be very judicious.
- QE is not on the horizon.
- Currency policy will likely be cautious as well. Read More »


US And German Yields Likely To Diverge More

US and German yields have diverged even more of late. The spread between the two is now at a multi-decade high; in this note we … Read More »