Quick Take: There Are No Excuses For Doubting Draghi

In the past several days I found myself fielding the same question over and over again: Since the EZ economy appears to be improving, won’t … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: A Somewhat Upbeat Mood At The IMF Meetings (Except For Greece)

Main Points
- Little change in IMF’s global growth outlook.
- A number of green shoots in the EZ make policymakers generally optimistic.
- Doubting ECB QE only hurts performance.
- Not a lot of optimism on Greece.
- China seen as slowing but not too much.
- Rate hikes by Fed seem likely around September. Read More »


More Monetary Stimulus In Japan? What To Expect And When

The economic situation in Japan has made some progress, but challenges still remain. Inflation, in particular, does not seem to be headed in the desired … Read More »


A Fed That Keeps Delaying Liftoff: Bullish Or Bearish For The Market?

The March FOMC meeting seems to have validated the market impression (which we think is wrong) that Yellen is ideologically dovish. As a result, a … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: Bringing Up The Odds Of A “Grexident”

Main Points:
- Why I think the odds of an accident are increasing.
- What are the possible scenarios?
- What’s the good news if Greece exits?
- What’s the not so good news? Read More »


Four Bullets On The FOMC Minutes: What Investors Need To Know

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting released yesterday didn’t elicit much of a market reaction, but nonetheless they contained four points worth keeping in … Read More »


Quick Take: The Employment Report Won’t Change Fed Attitude

The employment report was clearly disappointing, and the bond market is reacting accordingly. However, we shouldn’t get carried away and think the report drastically changes … Read More »


What Rate Hikes The Market Is Pricing In: A Look At Fed Funds Futures

We are getting several questions as to what the market is pricing in when it comes to Fed rate hikes. In this note we explain … Read More »


Three Reasons Why Concerns About ECB QE Are Not Warranted

We continue to hear concerns that QE in Europe might be ineffective because the ECB can’t buy all it said it would buy. With respect … Read More »


Roberto’s Video Update: Q&A On Fed Policy – My Answers To Frequent Client Questions

List of Frequent Client Questions:
- Is Yellen really data-dependent?
- Why were there big moves in the Fed forecast?
- How confident are you in a rate hike by September?
- What’s the most important thing to watch between now and then?
- Will the market converge to the Fed or vice versa?
- Wouldn’t tightening be a policy mistake given the fragile economy?
- Is the Fed trying to talk down the dollar? Read More »